The future of Europe




Stefan Wilkanowicz, The Future of Europe - The Fifth Scenario

The recently published George Weigel's "The Cube and the Cathedral" (Basic Books, April 5, 2005) contains considerations dealing with the crisis of Europe. One cannot concentrate on all of the addressed topics, since so many threads and points of view would require another, probably an even broader work.

Hence, I shall focus on author's predictions concerning the future of Europe. Here the author presents four scenarios and tries to approximate the probability of their occurrence. The "optimistic one" foresees a relatively harmonious development of the European Union resulting from the continuation of past achievements, the inclusion of some of the Balkan states and a solution to the problem of Turkish candidacy.

He considers such course of events quite improbable for a number of reasons, the most important being the current serious demographic crisis encompassing all of Europe, which unavoidably leads to an economic crisis. In the face of shortage of workers, one cannot count on the integration of the growing population of Muslim immigrant, since they would radicalize and evolve towards Islamic fundamentalism - if not terrorism. Hence, a more probable scenario is a period of confusion and peculiar disintegration, during which individual countries will undertake temporary measures, disregarding the common good. It will not do any good; it may even lead to a general weakness and deepen the crisis.

The third possibility is the return to Christian roots, Europe's reformation anew, the regaining of Christianity's dynamics. This could take place mainly with the help of new restoration movements and the youth tired by spiritual emptiness and eagerly responding to the message and person of John Paul II. This would supply Europe with the necessary foundation, a vision and a desirable goal.

There is also a fourth scenario, which the author calls the ghastly one. In this case, Europe fails to overcome its demographic fall, its financial system becomes even more risky, the demoralization of the population of native Europeans grows, while the immigrants arriving to Europe become even more Islamic. This could lead to a peculiar colonization of Europe by those very immigrants.

However, one should also consider other possibilities. Here I see a fifth scenario, based on two revolutionary changes: the cooperation of believers of various religions (mainly Christianity, Judaism and Islam) and the change of the concept of work and social bonds.

This cooperation already exists, although currently in a dispersed form. For a start, let us consider two symbolical events: the opening of a synagogue in Auschwitz and the arrival of a group of 500 Arabs and Jews in Auschwitz. In the ceremony related to the opening of the renovated synagogue participated not only a Catholic bishop, but also prince Hassan, the uncle of Jordan's king, the chairman of the UN organization "Religions for peace". He arrived in Auschwitz invited by a US Jewish foundation and delivered a moving speech.

The joint trip of Arabs and Jews to Auschwitz-Birkenau was the initiative of the Melechite rector from Nazareth, the Archimandrite Emil Shoufani, who for years has run a school attended by both Christian and Muslim children, which cooperates with a Jewish school in Jerusalem. The trip ended in Krakow at a meeting during which the "European declaration of Christians, Jews and Muslims" was signed by the co-chairman of the Polish Council for Christians and Jews and the co-chairmen of the Joint Council of Catholics and Muslims.

In this document we read:
We aim to build a society in which no one is abandoned, nor anyone indifferent to the fate of others. We strive to develop dialogue and cooperation. We aim to develop a democracy based on equal rights and the possibility of full involvement of each person in all spheres of life. We aim to shape people who attach importance to their local communities, to their national societies, and to a common Europe. We aim to build a Europe in which all cultures will be appreciated and in which there is universal recognition of the fundamental values embodied in the Ten Commandments.

Each year the Polish Catholic Church celebrates the Day of Judaism and the Day of Islam (after and before the Ecumenical Week).

The main Muslim group in Poland consists of Tartars, who settled here before ages and became ingrown into Polish culture. They may be perceived as peculiar representatives of "Euro-Islam", a current that grows in different environments that attempts to link Islam with fundamental values of European cultures and is a source of hope for better future.

Similar initiatives may be observed in other European countries. Currently there are quite many of them, however usually they are of local character and little is known about them. Yet initiatives with a broader spectrum also emerge - like the meeting in Spain of a few dozen rabbis and imams from various European countries, or the Israeli federation of seventy organizations working for the Arab-Jewish reconciliation.

In addition, one cannot forget the long-term experiences of the World Work Confederation, which initially was a Christian worker's union that became affiliated with a number of unions with ties to other religions. Obviously, the organization was not dedicated to theological dialogue, however different religious inclinations of their members never interfered, but stimulated cooperation (otherwise, they would not have joined it).

Contemporary socio-economic situation requires concentration and attention directed at two events: the growth of unemployment and the peculiar "breaking apart" of societies, the falling apart resulting in creation of "rightful members" and "excluded" or even "rejected" members - which is a threat to democracy and requires thinking over its forms in present-day world. Unemployment not only results in poverty or misery, but also degrades and destroys the inactive, or inclines them to crime or revolutionary acts. Hence, it poses a threat to the economic and political foundations.

The current system of unemployment compensation promotes destructive inactivity instead of useful work, hence it requires a fundamental reform, the introduction of "making up for the benefits" (for example within the framework of civic organizations), and the development of the sector of social economy not striving for profit, but providing people with socially useful work and making the most of their potential. This also requires the reconstruction of social bonds, of development of solidarity on various levels.

Is such a course of events possible? No one knows the answer to this question, such a scenario certainly would be very difficult to accomplish; yet it is necessary, in order to avoid the darkest scenario: a holy war between Muslim-, Christian-, Laymen- and Jewish- nationalisms and fundamentalisms - and all of this in the midst of weary chaos and social disintegration.

translation into English: Tomasz Lem

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